cabayero was right- took some time away to gear up for monday's great racing. here's an early look at hollywood- will have some stakes plays up tomorrow morning from other tracks. on to the track of the lakes and flowers....
race 1: shi shi doll. two year old maiden fillies go 5fs and of the ones who have run before, pval's horse free rent will be the toughest to beat- as she's almost certain to show more speed with the blinks on. however, i'm going to play shi shi doll from the suddenly hot corrales barn. i would say this one will be a price, but with the trainer's stats, we may be looking at second choice in the opener. no matter, i'm backing her to win anyway.
race 3: freedom's key. i gave this one out last time on may 10th and he ran a credible fourth at 17:1 after jumping the mirror image first time under the wire in his turf route. well, greely does the smart thing and puts the blinks on this guy and he should have absolutely no excuses in his third lifetime start. right proof is going to be a handful to hold off in third start off the bench, but freedom's key is going to be the better price and my gut is he puts it all together at 8/1 or so.
race 4: fly to the lake. i absolutely loved this horse last time and he looked like the winner at the top of the lane and just got plain outridden to the wire. now mike smith is gone and i get pval. that's a major rider upgrade and i'm on him again. the downside is the price- we figure to get 2/1 or so- anything less and this race is a pass.
race 5: hidden path. a corrales double? i'm hoping so. this is a said field and i'm betting on corrales to hustle this son of gold case away from the rail with the addition of blinkers. obviously, mr. frost will be tough (and likely odds on and many people's pick 6 single), but i'm looking for a way to get value in the exotics. at 20/1 or so, i'll put him all my multiple race bets.
race 7: minister's wildcat. call me an idiot, but i'm picking against jeff mullins. king robyn is a very nice sprinter, but this is a full field and i need some value. will i get it in minister's wildcat? not sure, but i'm certain the minister wil turn out to be a superstar when he puts it all together. if i can somehow get 4/1, i'm happy; otherwise, i'll be using excessive pleasure, jimmy o and roll hennessy roll.
race 8: the best race on the card. now this is grizzly group of milers. other than century city and nicobar i would not be surprised if ANY of the other horses won the race. i'll probably back touch of the blue at 10/1 or better, but if he gets bet down, i think i'll have to look at special ring. he's a total freak since he's been gelded and comes back from a 9 month layoff with sizzling works. can he win a grade 1 after such a long layoff? not sure, but he's the real deal and i think i may get a hint of a price on him. longshot players should look closely at war zone, who figures to be right behind redattore in the pace department. there's isn't much speed in here, which gives redattore the advantage, but i don't trust that he'll be at the top of his game after getting sick last month.
race 9: revello. i think this is going to be my pick six single- not b/c he's a standout by any means, but more so by process of elimination. hasty kris doesn't like to win, fonz's doesn't either, red apache is overmatched, pelirrojo just doesn't seem like the same horse since being injured and no socks dock is going the wrong way. that means olympic light is the other one that worries me, but he's coming off yet another layoff so i'll take my chances that he won't be fit enough to win. revello is in form and has a terrific record over the track.
good luck tomorrow- i will have some simulcast plays up later.
race 1: shi shi doll. two year old maiden fillies go 5fs and of the ones who have run before, pval's horse free rent will be the toughest to beat- as she's almost certain to show more speed with the blinks on. however, i'm going to play shi shi doll from the suddenly hot corrales barn. i would say this one will be a price, but with the trainer's stats, we may be looking at second choice in the opener. no matter, i'm backing her to win anyway.
race 3: freedom's key. i gave this one out last time on may 10th and he ran a credible fourth at 17:1 after jumping the mirror image first time under the wire in his turf route. well, greely does the smart thing and puts the blinks on this guy and he should have absolutely no excuses in his third lifetime start. right proof is going to be a handful to hold off in third start off the bench, but freedom's key is going to be the better price and my gut is he puts it all together at 8/1 or so.
race 4: fly to the lake. i absolutely loved this horse last time and he looked like the winner at the top of the lane and just got plain outridden to the wire. now mike smith is gone and i get pval. that's a major rider upgrade and i'm on him again. the downside is the price- we figure to get 2/1 or so- anything less and this race is a pass.
race 5: hidden path. a corrales double? i'm hoping so. this is a said field and i'm betting on corrales to hustle this son of gold case away from the rail with the addition of blinkers. obviously, mr. frost will be tough (and likely odds on and many people's pick 6 single), but i'm looking for a way to get value in the exotics. at 20/1 or so, i'll put him all my multiple race bets.
race 7: minister's wildcat. call me an idiot, but i'm picking against jeff mullins. king robyn is a very nice sprinter, but this is a full field and i need some value. will i get it in minister's wildcat? not sure, but i'm certain the minister wil turn out to be a superstar when he puts it all together. if i can somehow get 4/1, i'm happy; otherwise, i'll be using excessive pleasure, jimmy o and roll hennessy roll.
race 8: the best race on the card. now this is grizzly group of milers. other than century city and nicobar i would not be surprised if ANY of the other horses won the race. i'll probably back touch of the blue at 10/1 or better, but if he gets bet down, i think i'll have to look at special ring. he's a total freak since he's been gelded and comes back from a 9 month layoff with sizzling works. can he win a grade 1 after such a long layoff? not sure, but he's the real deal and i think i may get a hint of a price on him. longshot players should look closely at war zone, who figures to be right behind redattore in the pace department. there's isn't much speed in here, which gives redattore the advantage, but i don't trust that he'll be at the top of his game after getting sick last month.
race 9: revello. i think this is going to be my pick six single- not b/c he's a standout by any means, but more so by process of elimination. hasty kris doesn't like to win, fonz's doesn't either, red apache is overmatched, pelirrojo just doesn't seem like the same horse since being injured and no socks dock is going the wrong way. that means olympic light is the other one that worries me, but he's coming off yet another layoff so i'll take my chances that he won't be fit enough to win. revello is in form and has a terrific record over the track.
good luck tomorrow- i will have some simulcast plays up later.
